Where the Industry Goes from Here - When You Can't Reach Voters with Ads

In the aftermath of violence, a cybersecurity mess: A longer part of the clean-up effort from this week’s insurrection at the U.S. Capitol will be determining whether data and devices may have been compromised, according to Wired: “Rioters could have bugged congressional offices, exfiltrated data from unlocked computers, or installed malware on exposed devices.”

Another key question: Where does the industry go from here? The American Association of Political Consultants released a statement Wednesday. And here’s what AAPC President Rose Kapolczynski told our editor Sean J. Miller:

"Consultants know that words matter and can persuade people to act, and we have a responsibility to ensure that our advice to clients and our messages are not unwittingly the kindling for violence."

For political consultants, this week elevates how critical considerations around the rhetoric employed by campaigns and organizations are. It’s far from a new conversation, but it’s one that will take on new gravity.

Join us in a thought experiment. What happens when a large section of the population can’t be served ads, can’t be called, and can’t be texted? Let’s consider a few trends that we think make this question worth asking:

Forget about the new FCC rules limiting robocalling. Forget the exemption to those rules that limits pollsters to three calls every 30 days. Consider instead the simple incentive for Android and iOS to enhance the user experience by facilitating the blocking of any calls that aren’t from numbers in the user’s address book. Greer’s been using that feature for over a year and hasn’t been disturbed by a single unwanted call. Sure, he opted in to it. But what happens if that feature becomes opt-out. What if it extends to texts too?

Professor Scott Galloway of NYU Stern has argued for years that advertising, especially video advertising, is a tax on people’s time. His prediction was that media platforms would either by default or as a differentiated experience offer consumers the opportunity to opt-out of advertising for a fee. He was right. Think Netflix, Prime, and Hulu. Shows that took an hour to watch because of ads that interrupted your experience and stole your time, can now be finished in 40 minutes. By extension, why won’t the same trend emerge in other sectors: news for example. Pay a little more to the New York Times or Washington Post and enjoy an ad free experience. Hell, even social media; pay a fee and go ad free.

Apple has clearly decided that user privacy is a competitive advantage. Something that differentiates them from other tech companies, and that will help them avoid the kind of blowback the likes of Facebook are getting for how they leverage user data, often in ways the user has no idea about (and certainly no control over). iOS 14 is a manifestation of their market positioning: buy an iPhone, say goodbye to targeted advertising. But let’s extend that, Apple actually has a strong commercial incentive to migrate app vendors from ad models to subscription models: when somebody pays for an ad on an iOS app, Apple doesn’t get a cut. When a user pays for an in-app subscription, iOS gets a hefty cut (forever).

Our prediction: the ad industrial complex isn’t going anywhere, BUT there’s a large group of voters who will, through a mix of hardware choice and media choice, become almost impossible to reach through calls, texts, and advertising.

It comes down to this: no consumer really wants advertising. It’s a necessary evil that supplies the revenue necessary to operate the media/platform the consumer wants to use. A lot of users, certainly the more affluent, are starting to enter the world in which that necessary evil is no longer necessary.

Vendors pushing AI chatbot solutions are bullish about their prospects in 2021. Part of the reason for their optimism is that the technology, enabled by artificial intelligence, is now cheap enough that for only a few thousand dollars a campaign can get its own starter chatbot.

Beerud Sheth, CEO of Gupshup, a chat services provider, told C&E the set up isn't as complicated as one might think. In fact, they usually just start with a client's FAQs:

"That's where AI kicks in. The AI will say this is the meaning of that question. What is the intent of the question? It gets sophisticated but it's very doable … Now, we're probably getting into the era of personalized messaging. It's really just a matter of people realizing this potential."

A number of digital consultants in the political tech space have done some more sophisticated work and experimentation with chatbots over the past couple of cycles. Expect to see additional vendors looking for opportunity in the political market over the next four years.

Facebook, Twitter Could Face Punishing Regulation for Their Role in U.S. Capitol Riot
(Washington Post)

With Democrats now the majority in both the House and the Senate, the platforms await renewed efforts at regulation.

Google’s Plan To Replace Tracking Cookies Goes Under UK Antitrust Probe
(Tech Crunch)

The move follows a complaint lodged in November by a coalition of digital marketing companies which urged the CMA to block Google’s implementation of the self-styled "Privacy Sandbox."

The Storming Of Capitol Hill Was Organized On Social Media.
(NYT)

On social media sites used by the far-right, such as Gab and Parler, directions on which streets to take to avoid the police and which tools to bring to help pry open doors were exchanged in comments.